December 7, 2014 at 4:57 pm #1877
Topic :India’s rise as super-power: 2020 ?
India has caught the attention of the world – Investments pouring in, but is it just a bubble or are we the next super power ?
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Thread will be open on 12:00 AM IST on 10th Dec, 2014 !
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Founder , Ideasmakemarket.com
MBA Finance, NMIMS, Mumbai 2011-13December 9, 2014 at 10:07 am #1933December 9, 2014 at 11:51 pm #1937Karthikeyan NBParticipant
With the new government in place & positive sentiments raising in the nation. Demographic dividend at its peak in India while China and other countries ageing faster. Can INDIA convert this to its advantage and become a Super-Power by 2020??
Debate is now open!!!!December 10, 2014 at 1:00 am #1939Priyam DuttaParticipant
It depends hugely on how you define what a superpower does!! If GDP growth itself is considered as a sole indicator, then we are on a great trajectory. But isn’t that taking a very myopic view of what a superpower is or does!! Where are we in terms of Human Development Index. I will tell you where..we are the 135th country out of 166 countries, the Democracy Index has slated us to be a “flawed democracy”, the Legatum prosperity index puts India at 102, out of 142 countries…we rank 85th in the Corruption perception index by Transparency International, out of 175 countries…
My objective in listing out these parameters is not to malign the achievements that India has made or is currently aspiring to achieve!! I am however deeply skeptical of the rhetoric that we are en-route to being a superpower country!! I believe we need to first lay down the criteria that differentiates superpowers and then see where we stand on those parameters!! That should be the crux of any fruitful debate!!December 10, 2014 at 1:01 am #1940Sivagaminathan SivasubramanianParticipant
Given my location advantage, I grabbed the opportunity to start the discussion.
I am not very happy to begin by putting forth a pessimistic view – 2020 is too soon a deadline to achieve the super power status.
I agree with the topic title that there is great optimism surrounding India story after the elections. Indian stock markets are hitting new highs everyday and it also is the best performing emerging market in the world so far in 2014. Rupee is stable. Growth targets revised. The government is very business friendly and keen on pushing economic reforms.
However, I doubt if the surge in foreign investments are solely driven by the fact that the foreign investors trust the new government. It is because of the free money flowing in the developed markets in the name of “Quantitative Easing”. When US stopped, Japan started. EU also has QE in its plans. So when Japan stops QE, EU might pick it up. So all these free money flow into the most promising emerging market right now. China is not at its best. Russia is in trouble. India has become the defacto option. To me it is a lucky coincidence. I am eagerly waiting to see if our markets are strong enough to withstand when the QE stops altogether.
Even if all goes well, the only reasonable target in the next five years would be to reach a consistent fast growth mode. To become a super power is a different story altogether. It would take decades before that happen. We have more fundamental issues to solve before aspiring to be a super power. To quote my friend in my school, “India is rich, Indians are poor”.
Looking forward for more thoughts.December 10, 2014 at 10:24 am #1942
Great thoughts …. Priyam and Sivagaminathan
But aren’t you guys a bit too negative?
Founder , Ideasmakemarket.com
MBA Finance, NMIMS, Mumbai 2011-13December 10, 2014 at 11:32 am #1951Kabir JainParticipant
As per UNDP India Millennium Development Goals 2015 , India’s progress report has not turned out to be satisfactory save a few goals.Out of the 12 targets only 3 are on-track or fast considering all indicators.
(to be contd)….December 10, 2014 at 9:30 pm #1960Aakash AdakaneParticipant
Today, the economy of India is 11th largest economy in the world by Nominal GDP and 4th largest by purchasing power parity.India has a strong economic reforms from the socialist inspired economy of a post independence indian nation.the country began to develop a fast paced economic growth,as free market principles were initiated in 1990 for international competition and foreign investment.To be a superpower in 2020,India has improve on certain areas like
1) Infrastructure i.e. Roads,Electricity,Airports
3) Social Issues: Poverty,Corruption,Population
In brief part :
Roads : We have a big challenge for connectivity with good,wider quality of roads to rural as well as metro locations.A good road network can generate many commercial and social benefits for rural economies through increasing access to goods as well as services such as health and education.
Electricity : India is 6th largest energy consumer,accounting for 3.4% of global energy consumption.Hence demand and consumption for electricity is on high side.Most of the time there is loss of electricity during low transmission and distribution.Due to this we are lagging behind in power sector.Power cut is common in India mostly in rural area which is adversely effected India’s economic growth.
Airport – India’s aviation industry is in very bad shape.Hardly any company making any profit.All companies are fighting for their survival in market.It has to improve as it is the way for international transport og goods and services.
Education Sector –>
India is fighting for its more literacy rate.Despite of growing investment in education,still 35% of population are illiterate.Shortage of well developed institution,faculty had raised questions on quality of education.Dropping rate from school are increasing,specially the cultural attitude stop girls from attending school.As per data women have much lower literacy rate then men.To become superpower we have to improve our quality of education and need to reach of education to whole country.
Social Issues –>
Poverty : 1/3 rd of population lives below the poverty line in India.Middle class has gained more from recent positive economic development but then also as a whole india suffers from substantial poverty.The distribution of wealth is uneven,the rich are becoming richer and the poorer are becoming more poorer.We have to find ways to increase our per capita income as it is going down day by day.
Corruption :India is ranking 72 out of 17 countries in Transparency International’s corruption perception Index.Bribes,evasion of taxes,fraud,scams,rackets,exchange controls are responsible for this.Political corruption,Criminalization of Indian politics in India is major concern.
Population : As all know India is not much behind from China to overtake in Populaltion.Though we have edge on demographic dividend as in next few years we may have worlds highest working age population.It may affect us in opposite way.
Unemployment : Agriculture accounted about 50-60 % total workforce in India.But now we are facing stagnation in this sector due to climatic change,global warming.Most of the people are turning from this sector to the sevice sector which is growing rapidly.India’s labour force is growing annually but the employment rate is growing down as compared to labour force.
If we work on these above issue,i hope we will soon become Superpower in 2020.
Happy to hear your thought on my views.December 11, 2014 at 12:30 pm #1962Peesapati RangacharyuluParticipant
As per the current situation, due to some factors like stable government, friendly relations with neighboring countries and focus on key issues like developing manufacturing sector in India with the slogan of Make in India, Swacch Bharath campaign, it is so likely that India has all the potential to achieve the status of super power. Adding to these facts are the advantage of having more young population compared to other super power nations like USA, Japan,UK and even China. The focus of government to improve manufacturing sector in India, develop smart cities, improve infrastructure facilities and make the procedures investor friendly also boost India as such to become a super power. If we see in recent past, all the global super powers were hit by recession but comparatively India was not hit by it that badly. The surging sensex daily and the RBI’s policies intervention all can make India stand as super-power by 2020. Coming to other factors like education, sports and entertainment which are also necessary for a nation to develop as a super power. India can boast of its tourist destinations and proper planning can further increase the revenue form this sector. Coming to entertainment, India has some famous studios and some of the movies can even compare themselves to high standards as they are praised internationally. Education is also a key factor for a nation to become a super power. If we compare the figures, literacy rate has been raised in the last decade and is expected to grow in the following decade which clearly indicates education is also one of the sector which is given vast importance. Adding to this, India already has announced itself as polio-free nation and several other disease have also been wiped off from the country. Considering all this aspects, if India controls bureaucratic procedures and corruption, it can become a super-power by 2020December 12, 2014 at 12:25 am #1963Saurabh AroraParticipant
As pointed out previously that 2020 is too early to for India to become a superpower. Apart from the results of indexes like Human Development Indexes, Corruption Index, Ease of doing business etc. in which India is far behind, the discussions stated above by the youth of the country itself states that India is very far from the”superpower” tag.
We all Indians have a very bad memory, and our whole thought process quickly changes based on the few good things or any bad things happening in recent times (classic example being treatment of cricket players). Just because CEO of some big firms like Mckinsey and Bof have pointed India to be a credible place to invest money and good investments like that of Prince of Qatar coming to India doesnt mean we can become a superpower in coming six months. I feel we are having this discussions just because of the hype created by the BJP government. I dont deny that the government is taking the right steps to put the economy on a high growth trajectory but I feel it is too early in the day for us to talk about being “superpower”.
I am not denying the fact that we are having the potential to become a superpower if we reduce our mutual differences and work together for the betterment of the society as a whole. Moreover, I feel that just development could not solve our problems, “sustainable development” is the answer for the country.
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